How to Understand the IPCC's Figure SPM.1



The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and potential future risks, and possible response options. The IPCC produces comprehensive Assessment Reports every six to seven years, as well as Special Reports on specific topics. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) is the latest and most comprehensive assessment of the state of knowledge on climate change.

The AR6 consists of three Working Group reports and a Synthesis Report (SYR), which integrates the findings of the Working Group reports and the Special Reports. The SYR is written in a non-technical style suitable for policymakers and addresses a broad range of policy-relevant but policy-neutral questions. The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the SYR provides a concise overview of the key messages and findings of the SYR.

One of the most important figures in the SPM is Figure SPM.1, which shows how human activities have affected the Earth's climate system and how different emission scenarios could affect future climate change. The figure consists of four panels:

- Panel A shows the observed changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and global mean sea level (GMSL) since 1850-1900, as well as the human and natural drivers of these changes. The figure shows that human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, have caused a rapid increase in CO2 concentration and GMST, and a corresponding rise in GMSL. The figure also shows that natural factors, such as volcanic eruptions and solar variability, have had a smaller and more variable influence on climate change.

- Panel B shows the projected changes in GMST, CO2 concentration, and GMSL under five different emission scenarios, called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which represent different plausible futures of socioeconomic development and greenhouse gas emissions. The figure shows that the magnitude and rate of future climate change depend strongly on the emission scenario, with higher emissions leading to higher warming, higher CO2 concentration, and higher sea level rise. The figure also shows that even under the lowest emission scenario (SSP1-1.9), which implies reaching net zero CO2 emissions by around 2050 and net negative emissions thereafter, some further warming and sea level rise are unavoidable due to the inertia of the climate system.

- Panel C shows the projected changes in regional surface temperature and precipitation under two emission scenarios: SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5. The figure shows that all regions are projected to warm more than the global average under both scenarios, with higher warming over land than over oceans, and higher warming at high latitudes than at low latitudes. The figure also shows that precipitation patterns are projected to change, with increases in some regions (e.g., high latitudes and some tropical areas) and decreases in others (e.g., subtropical areas and some mid-latitude areas). The figure also shows that the differences between regions and scenarios are larger for precipitation than for temperature.

- Panel D shows the projected changes in selected climate impacts and risks under two emission scenarios: SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5. The figure shows that climate change poses significant risks for natural and human systems, such as ecosystems, water resources, food security, health, human security, and economic development. The figure also shows that these risks increase with higher levels of warming and vary across regions and sectors. The figure also shows that some risks are irreversible or very long-lasting, such as the loss of ice sheets and coral reefs.

The main message of Figure SPM.1 is that human activities have caused unprecedented changes in the Earth's climate system and that these changes will continue to affect natural and human systems for centuries to come. However, the figure also shows that there is still a window of opportunity to limit future warming and its impacts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions rapidly and drastically. The figure also shows that adaptation measures can reduce some of the risks posed by climate change but cannot eliminate them completely.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-1

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