A detailed look at future warming and remaining carbon budgets in the IPCC WG1 AR6 report

Prof Malte Meinshausen and Zebedee Nicholls, 24 August 2021. The Physical Science (Working Group 1) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report was released on the 10th August 2021. This second of two seminars takes a closer look at two key areas in the report: future warming and remaining carbon budgets, presented by two authors that have been closely involved in this IPCC cycle. It builds on the broader overview provided by the first seminar. The seminar will present an assessment of future warming under a selection of different scenarios. We will discuss the assessments, their uncertainty and the methods used, including key methodological advancements compared to previous IPCC reports. To enhance the connection with other discussions on net zero, we will also place the scenarios considered in the context of other mitigation pathways from the scenario literature. We will also discuss new estimates of our remaining carbon budget i.e. the total amount of carbon dioxide we can emit before we cross a given temperature threshold such as 1.5C or 2.0C. We compare the updated remaining carbon budget estimates with previous estimates from the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5C (SR1.5) and the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and dive into some of the implications of the probabilistic language used for reporting remaining carbon budgets. We also discuss the implications for policy, particularly when we must reach net zero emissions in order to remain within the budget. This seminar is part of a series being hosted by the Climate and Energy College in 2021 that is supported by the Strategic Partnership for Implementation of the Paris Agreement.


Anyone notice at 9:00 not a single graph shows an exponential upward curve indicating none of the models used actual feedback loops which create a quadratic equation.

In algebra, a quadratic equation is any equation that can be rearranged in standard form as ax^{2}+bx+c=0 where x represents an unknown, and a, b, and c represent known numbers, where a ≠ 0. If a = 0, then the equation is linear, not quadratic, as there is no ax^2 term.

Popular posts from this blog

Introduction to the International Court

Overview of the International Court The International Court, often referred to as the World Court, is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations. It settles legal disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues. Established: 1945 Location: The Hague, Netherlands Function: To ensure that international law is applied in a consistent and fair manner The International Court Case: A Landmark Battle The term "landmark battle" refers to significant legal cases that have far-reaching implications. These cases often set precedents and shape the interpretation and application of international law. Case Name Year Significance Case A 2000 Set a precedent for environmental protection Case B 2010 Defined the rights of indigenous peoples A deeper exploration of the specific cases brought to the International Court. We'll look at the legal arguments, judgments, and b...
Read more

The Evil Forces Behind Climate Change: Fossil Fuel Giants

The Guardian has unveiled the 20 fossil fuel companies whose relentless exploitation of the world's oil, gas, and coal reserves can be directly linked to over one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions in the modern era. This data, provided by the Climate Accountability Institute in the US, reveals how these state-owned and multinational firms are driving the climate emergency, even though they are aware of the industry's devastating impact on the planet. The top 20 companies have contributed to 35% of all energy-related carbon dioxide and methane worldwide, totaling 480 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent since 1965. The list includes well-known names such as Chevron, Exxon, BP, and Shell, as well as state-owned companies like Saudi Aramco and Gazprom. Chevron, Exxon, BP, and Shell alone are behind more than 10% of the world's carbon emissions since 1965. These companies have continued to expand their operations, despite knowing the environmental impact of fossil ...
Read more

Global Warming Facts & Surface Temperature Changes

Global Warming Facts: Understanding 150 Years of Surface Temperature Changes Visit the updated page at:  Global Warming Facts (climatemanagement.site) Our Earth's weather is like a big puzzle with many pieces. Some things make it hot, and some things make it cold. People have been watching the weather for 150 years, writing down how hot or cold it is every day. This helps us learn about our planet. We need to know about the weather because it helps us live better. It tells us what happened before, what we should do now, and what might happen later. In this article, we will talk about how the weather has changed over time. We will look at old weather books, science tools, important discoveries, and what it all means for us and our world. Come with us on an adventure! We'll go back in time and see how people learned about the weather long ago. We'll find out how they use special tools today to know more. And we'll see what all of this means for you, me, and everyone ...
Read more