Scenarios, carbon budgets and temperature projections in the new IPCC WG1 AR6 report

Prof Malte Meinshausen and Zebedee Nicholls, 10 August 2021. The Physical Science (Working Group 1) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report was released on the 10th August 2021. This first of two seminars will provide an overview of some key results in the IPCC report, presented by two authors that have been closely involved in this IPCC cycle. The seminar will cover the new scenarios that underpin future projections, historical warming updates, the question around how these scenarios compare to 1.5C warming, a comparison of when peak warming levels could be reached under the low mitigation scenarios, the impact of COVID, techniques to provide assessed future temperature projections based on multiple lines of evidence, the usefulness of providing projections against warming levels, remaining carbon budgets in comparison to the SR.5 report, as well as the importance of CO2 versus other gases, both in terms of past and future warming as well as in terms of so-called metrics that compare unit emissions of different GHGs. The second seminar (24th August) will provide more technical detail on two key aspects, i.e. assessed future warming levels and remaining carbon budgets.


2014 projections 1.5 by 2050 at the latest. 2021 projections 1.5 by late 2030s. 2028 projections... “oops” we just passed 1.5.

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